Econometric Forecasting Of The World Zinc Industry

This paper is a presentation of findings based upon an econometric model of the world zinc industry. The model was developed as a simple but useful aid for long-run forecasting and planning purposes. A structure was developed for both simulating real zinc price effects on production and consumption, and for forecasting long-run annual zinc prices and supply/ demand levels. Moreover, a methodology is provided to incorporate the effects of: (1) historic technological advances in zinc supply, and (2) the development of the competitive plastics industry. Finally, reduced form equations are used to generate ex post forecasts to evaluate the model's performance.