Discussion - Mathematics of Mine Sampling IV - An Analysis of Geostatistical Doctrine – Annual Bound Volume of Transactions, Vol. 272, 1982, pp. 1918-1927 – Shurtz, R. F.

Geostatistics originated as an application of a classical statistical concept, multivariate linear regression, to the solution of a practical problem, estimation of reserves in the South African gold mines. In this respect, geostatistics should only be considered as one statistical method among many that can be used to evaluate mineral deposits. R.F. Shurtz has studied possible applications of power spectrum analysis to the same problem, and these studies may result in future improvements over the presently accepted geostatistical methodology. The intention of R.F. Shurtz's paper, as stated by the author, is to "relate geostatistical doctrine to classical statistical and mathematical concepts." However, in this comparison the "geostatistical doctrine" appears to include only the simplest among the geostatistical concepts advocated by G. Matheron, while "classical statistical and mathematical concepts" are limited nearly exclusively to power spectrum analysis. The author attempts to compare the two methods, and to prove the theoretical superiority of power spectrum analysis. Unfortunately, a number of errors and incorrect statements are made concerning both the theory and application of geostatistics, which invalidate the comparison and the conclusions drawn from it. The errors made in this comparison are understandable since few scientists can claim to have expertise in two theories as diverse as those compared here. In many respects, this paper is reminiscent of polemics which occurred 15 to 20 years ago when geostatistics and trend surface analysis were compared. Each method has its own merit and limitations, and none can claim absolute superiority. The most misleading statements found in R.F. Shurtz's paper are: The definition of the semivariogram given on page 1923 is incorrect. If the maximum difference between two assays is 1, the maximum value of the semivariogram is not 1, as stated, but 0.5. The comparison of geostatistics and linear regression made in the section entitled "Insufficiency of Classical Statistics?" is not valid. The semivariogram of the sample values given in Table 1 (page 1919) has a parabolic shape indicative of a linear drift. When such a semivariogram is observed, the simplest method of geostatistical estimation (linear kriging with unknown mean) is not applicable. Universal kriging must be used that takes trends into account. On page 1921 it is stated that the use of trends "is officially disparaged in geostatistics." Again on page 1924 mention is made to "Matheron's commitment to random process (intrinsic) models and his present categorical rejection of deterministic (trend) models for mineral deposit evaluation." Indeed, from articles published by geostatisticians in the 1960s one could infer that geostatistical methods are not compatible with the presence of trends. However, even the simplest