Discrete-Event Simulation for Predicting Equipment Fleet Failure Behavior

Predicting equipment failure behavior plays a critical role in providing a safe operation. Although various reliability evaluation methods are available for estimating failure behavior profiles, these approaches are based on mathematical formulation, leading to actual operation simplification and improper estimation of failure trends. This study proposes a discrete-event simulation (DES) approach to model fleet failure behavior. This approach can model the maintenance strategies in multi-component systems with minimum simplifications. In this regard, the first step was to collect a historical failure time dataset (e.g., the time between failures). Then, the DES model is established to predict the severity of failure events and design maintenance strategy considering actual operation circumstances. Afterward, the maintainability analysis was performed to estimate equipment downtime and availability. The achieved results showed that the system availability was about 85%. Also, the findings demonstrated that the DES could efficiently predict the equipment failure behavior using various stochastic events.