Discount Rates For Foreign Mining Ventures

I. INTRODUCTION There is no question that the choice of an appropriate discount rate is a critical element in virtually all business decisions in extractive industries. The standard textbook approach relies on a single overall cost of capital for an entire firm, itself a weighted average of the firm's cost of debt and equity. But a single rate is appropriate only if the commercial risks and financing structures are similar for all projects under consideration. In extractive industries, appropriate discount rates are likely to vary greatly from project to project. Risks of projects differ markedly by mineral, by country in which the project is located, by stage in production, and by position in the project's life. Further, for a variety of institutional reasons, financing structures vary greatly in relation to these same variables and thus the discount rate appropriate to the entire investment and, in particular, to the sponsor's equity investment will vary even more markedly. Failure to select discount rates which reflect these differences can result in extremely distorted decisions. Our interest in this subject results from our ongoing research on alternative ownership and financing structures for large scale extractive ventures in less developed countries where risks to the various participants--the sponsors, the financiers, and the host government--vary dramatically with the different options. Given the magnitude of these differences, a single discount rate for all options is clearly inappropriate. However, there appear to be few guidelines for practicing managers to follow in setting appropriate rates. In this paper, we take a first step in this direction.