Discount rates and risk assessment in mineral project evaluations

"The concept of risk is well established in the mining industry. It is acknowledged when estimates of reserves are expressed as proven or probable, when mining and metallurgical recoveries are applied to the ore, and when contingencies are added to costs. However, it is difficult to provide a quantitative assessment of risk. The significant sources of risk in a mineral project and how these are addressed in project evaluations are discussed.The discount rate is examined as a fundamental means of reflecting risk in discounted cash flow evaluations. Current industry practice is discussed, and a methodology for the analysis of risk levels is proposed that assesses the constituent components of the discount rate: real interest, mineral project risks, and country risk.IntroductionThis paper examines the components of the discounted cash flow discount rate and proposes a method of estimating project-specific discount rates. The motivation for this work comes from experience of project evaluations in which owners and purchasers had agreed on virtually every aspect of the evaluation except how much the project was worth. Agreement was reached on reserves, grade, recovery, capital costs, operating costs, taxes, and, by combining these components, even on the final cash flow values. The only difference in opinion concerned the discount rate to be used in the calculation of the net present value. Depending on the life of the project, such differences of opinion can cause a variation of more than 50% in the value placed on a project! This is illustrated in Figure I."