Determining The Constants Of Oil-Production Decline Curves

Short cuts for determining the constants of oil decline curves, with the method of least squares as a starting point, are presented and applications made to practical examples. The nature of the raw data does not justify rigid adherence to the orthodox theory but does lend justification to convenient methods of approximation within reasonable limits. If the conventional form y = kxn were changed to y = k(x + c)', methods of determining the curves would be simplified and greater uniformity in calculated results would probably follow. As A result of the publication, several years ago, of some articles on determining the constants of empirical formulas, the determining the constant's of types of curves used for estimating the production decline of oil wells was brought to the writer for study. Methods requiring a minimum of time and labor and a maximum of rigor were sought, as it appeared that the nature of the data from which such curves are computed and the relative uncertainty of occurrence of the events predicted from them did not justify close adherence to the theory on which the solution of such problems is ordinarily based. The technical deficiencies of the solutions presented in this paper, from the standpoint of the method of least squares, are readily apparent to those familiar with that method, but their presentation in detail here is irrelevant to the subject matter. However, it is the author's conviction, after a rather exhaustive study of the problem, that the value of the solutions lose little by the approximate application of the conventional theory. It must be understood by those who use these formulas that the solutions herein given, and the formulas based on them, are merely facilities to aid the valuation engineer in forecasting future events. It is assumed, also, that before application is made of them, prescient judgment based on the circumstances in each case, shows that the forecast has some probability of realization. On this basis only will these formulas be found useful.