Demand Patterns for Lead and Zinc in the Mature Economies

INTRODUCTION Lead and zinc are today rightly regarded as sister metals. Historically, however, they differ markedly with lead being known and in general use as the metal since 3000 BC in several countries which at that time might have been described as mature economies. Zinc was not isolated and recognised as an industrial metal with distinct and valuable properties until about 1700-1800 AD (although it had, of course, been utilised as a constituent of brass for some 2000 years previously). c were well established as industrial metals by the beginning of the 20th century. The present paper briefly reviews the overall growth in world consumption* and changes in the three main areas which today represent the mature economies or industrialised areas, i. e. ,Europe, the United States and Japan. Trends in overall consumption are determined by the demands for the individual uses for lead and zinc. The changes in patterns of use in the industrialised areas - individually and collectively - and reasons for the changes are also considered. LONG TERM TRENDS - 1900-1984 The World Picture Since the beginning of the 20th century the world consumption of lead (3.9 million tonnes in 1984) has grown almost fourfold and that of zinc (4.7 million tonnes in 1984) is almost eleven times greater than it was in 1900. The long-term trend has been one of continuing expansion for both. metals although the pattern has been severely disturbed at certain periods, for example in the years immediately following the two world wars and at times of marked recessions in industrialised areas. Apart from such major setbacks, new levels of consumption have been established regularly every few years. Recently, however, consumption has not really grown and with only a slow and partial recovery in world industrial activity at present, there is no indication that the peak consumptions of 4.2 million tonnes of lead, set in 1979, and 4.8 million tonnes of zinc (1973) will be exceeded in the near future. The growth in world lead and zinc consumption since 1900 is shown in Figure 1 (which includes changes in copper and aluminium for comparison). Overall growth over the period 1900-1984 has been about two percent a year for lead and about three percent for zinc (annual growth for copper has also been about three percent). Increases in tonnage consumption and growth rates by decade for lead and zinc are summarised in Table I. However, the growth rates by decade sometimes conceal very large individual annual increases and decreases. For example, in 1975 lead consumption fell by 13 percent and zinc consumption by 22 percent compared to 1974. In 1976 consumption of lead and zinc rose by 12 percent and 18 percent respectively. The years when consumption 'landmarks' (ie one, two, three and four million tonnes) were first reached are shown on Table 2. Clearly, the pattern of shorter periods being required to attain each extra million tonnes of consumption was broken in the 1970's. The consumption of zinc overtook that of lead for the first time in 1940, and since 1946 has always been at a higher level. Trends in industrialised areas The two key industrialised areas at the beginning of the 20th century were Europe and the United States which between them accounted for some 95 percent of world lead consumption and 98 percent of zinc consumption. Figures 2 and 3 show the growth in lead and zinc consumption, and Figures 4 and 5 the percentage shares for each area since 1900. Europe has usually been the major user of lead except for some years in the 1920fs, most of the 40's and early 50's when consumption in the United States was larger. In 1900, Europe accounted for about 64 percent of world lead consumption and the United States just over 30 percent. Currently, Europe takes about 40 percent of world consumption and the