Country Risk Analysis

COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS A company operating in a foreign country assumes all the risks that it would at home. However, beyond these, it assumes risks that arise from the unique political economic, financial conditions of the foreign country which it operates. These risks are known as "country risks". The importance of these risks has grown appreciably in the recent past (particularly in the aftermath of Iran's revolution in the late 1970s and Mexico's debt rescheduling of 1982-83), and as a result, country risk analysis has become an increasingly useful management tool. Country risk analysis seeks to assess the probability that countries will service their aggregate foreign liabilities on time, as well as the probability that country conditions could inhibit the debt service capability of private sector debtors. This involves assessment of both the ability and the willingness of countries to meet their external liabilities in a timely fashion. "Ability" is linked economic and financial variables: principally, a country's economic structure, foreign exchange generating capacity and debt service burden. On the other hand, "willingness" is tied to political factors: mainly the economic/financial orientation of government policy and the stability of economic decision making. Ability: Economic, Financial Conditions and Prospects Judgement of a country's ability to meet foreign financial obligations begins with a detailed study of a country's external balance sheet which compares the country's foreign liabilities and assets. Table 1 below presents country balance sheets for Mexico, Korea and Indonesia. [TABLE 1 The External Balance 3-,-et 1983 (billions of dollars; Indonesia Mexico Korea Foreign Liabilities 31.1 67.6 40.5 By Source: Bank 13.1 75.5 26.3 Non-bank 18.0 12.114.2 Foreign Reserves 9.3 4.7 7.0] The large magnitude of Mexico's external debt (nearly $90 billion), compared to foreign assets of approximately $5 billion, illustrates the weakness of this country's external payments position, and the main reason that it has been unable to meet interest and principal payments and been forced to reschedule its foreign debt. On the other hand, the relationship between Korea's external liabilities and assets ($50.5 billion and $7 billion, respectively), is more favorable and helps explain why Korea has been able to meet debt service payments and maintain its access to the international capital markets. Indonesia has even a more favorable relationship between its foreign assets and liabilities, $31 billion and $9 billion, respectively, and its debt is mostly lower interest rate, non-bank debt, making for a less onerous debt service burden. After the balance sheet, the analysis turns to a comparison of the country's foreign exchange earning capacity and its prospective financing requirements, that is, the country's future earnings stream