Commodity-Linked Finance And Risk Management

INTRODUCTION The business arena has dramatically changed for most producers and consumers of commodities. International debt, currency shortages, political upheavals, etc., require corporations today to be sophisticated and flexible enough to change their purchasing and sales techniques in order to maximize returns. Many external factors, such as interest rates, trading partners, currency changes, and government edicts, can have an adverse effect on a company's bottom line. Totally out of a company's ability to control or predict, these. factors force the commodities based corporation to constantly re-evaluate its operating scope and domain. The principle of back-yard only operations and the laissez-faire with blinders style of management is no longer a viable way to run a business. The industrial world has been operating for the past 10 to 15 years as though there were no commodity nor raw material crisis. For developed countries the primary products sector has become marginal, whereas it was central in the first half of the century. A radical change in the method of doing business is necessary to offset a depression in the industrial economy. The risk of collapse may be heightened by a banking crisis caused by massive defaults on the part of commodity producing debtors, whether in the third world or in our own farm producing sector. The raw materials economy has become divergent with the industrial economy. This is a major change in the world economy with tremendous implications in both developed and developing countries for economic and social policies and economic theories. Basic competition issues, such as low labor costs, are likely to become less of an advantage in international trade. In developed countries these costs are going to account for a smaller portion of total costs. The total costs of automated processes are lower than those of traditional plants with low labor costs. Automation in the commodities sector eliminates the hidden but high cost of not processing at capacity created by poor quality, rejects and maintenance for product change-overs. The cost of capital will become increasingly important in international competition. Over the last ten years the U.S. has become the highest cost country in this area. Reversing the U.S. policy of high interest rates and costly equity capital should be a priority for management decision makers. In the rapid industrialization of this century, Japan developed by exporting raw materials, (principally, silk and tea), at steadily increasing prices. Germany developed by leap frogging into the high-tech industries, mainly in electricity, chemicals and optics. The United States did both. Both avenues are blocked for today's rapidly industrializing countries because (a) the deterioration of the terms of trade for primary products, and (b) it requires an infrastructure of knowledge and education far beyond the scope of a poor country. Many explanations exist for the explosion of international money flows. The shift from fixed to floating exchange rates in 1971 may have given initial impetus by inviting currency speculation. The surge in liquid funds flowing to petroleum producers after the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 was definitely a major cause. There can be little doubt that the U.S. government deficit also played a big role. The American budget deficit has become a massive void, sucking in liquid funds from all over the world and making the U.S. the world's major debtor country. In reality, a trade and payments deficit is actually a loan from the seller of goods and services to the buyer, that is, to the U.S. From now on, the global ramifications of business will have to be treated in economic theory and business policy alike. Economic theory teaches that the comparative advantage factors of a real economy determines operative and financial policy. These comparisons -- labor costs, productivity, raw materials cost, energy costs,