Combining Geostatistics And Simulation To Predict Sulfur At A Central Illinois Coal Mine

At Monterey Coal's No. 1 Mine in central Illinois, it became necessary to predict if the sulfur content of individual trainloads of coal would exceed a contract sulfur maximum. Using geostatistics and Monte Carlo-type simulations, a forecasting procedure was developed to meet this need. The developed procedure predicts the monthly, mean sulfur content of the coal shipped and the probability of individual shipments exceeding the contract limit. During the first five months of using this procedure, the forecasted, monthly mean sulfur value was within 0.03% of actual. This represents a significant improvement over the inverse-distance, gridding-based, forecasting used previously.