Coal Pillar Strength Analysis Based on Size at the Time of Failure

"A major shortcoming of the statistical back-analysis of coal pillar strength is that it relies on the asmined pillar dimensions, not taking into account time-related pillar scaling with subsequent reduction in pillar width. The paper describes an investigation where the rate of pillar scaling was applied to the pillars in the databases of failed and unfailed pillars. The reduced pillar sizes were then used in the same method of statistical back-analysis that had been used in the past.This resulted in an equation for pillar strength which predicts significantly greater pillar strength than the previous statistical analyses, which is similar to the strength which had been found earlier by direct testing of large specimens underground. It is concluded that the lower strengths found by previous statistical analyses are due to the incorrect pillar width being used and that by adjusting the pillar sizes to compensate for scaling, more credible results that correspond to direct testing are obtained.As the newly derived strength equation is time-dependent, it follows that the safety factors and probabilities of failure are likewise time-dependant. An equation to determine the probability of failure is also developed. This results in the safety factor being close to unity at a probability of failure of 50%, which is aligned to statistical expectation. IntroductionSince the Coalbrook mine disaster, caused by massive pillar collapse, there have been several attempts at analysing and defining the strength of coal pillars. It was realized in the very beginning that performing classical strength tests on coal specimens in a laboratory and then transferring those results to real coal pillars could not be successful. The scatter of results is one problem and, more seriously, there is a size effect (at least for small specimens) that made the transformation of strength results to much larger coal pillars underground all but impossible.Two main schools of thought then emerged. Some researchers preferred to perform direct strength tests on large specimens underground, while others relied on statistical back-analysis of failed and unfailed pillar cases, attempting to determine the differences in size and shape that would allow a satisfactory prediction of failure. The latter school of thought resulted in the method that was widely accepted by the South African coal mining industry, described in the landmark publication by Salamon and Munro (1967)."