Closure Risk Assessment in Choghart Iron Ore Mine Using 3D Risk Model

"Premature and unplanned mine closure can result in significant adverse impacts on the environment and community and need to be managed appropriately. Risk management techniques can reduce the negative impacts and risks of early mine closure. Risk Assessment 3D Model, is an efficient tool to quantify risk. The aim of this paper is to identify the mine closure risks in Choghart iron ore mine, and calculate the overall mine closure risk level. The result shows that 51.4% of assessed risks have low risk level and the overall risk level of early mine closure is low. Keywords: mine closure, risk assessment 3D model, Choghart iron ore mine INTRODUCTION The modern mining life-cycle can be divided into three main stages; exploration, mining (opening and production) and post mining (mine closure, and reclamation). Mine closure is the critical component of the modern mining life-cycle and it refers to the period of time when the operational stage of a mine has permanently ceases (Heikkinen et al, 2008). Planned closure occurs due to the depletion of ore reserves, but sometimes it is premature. Laurance (2006) shows that only 25% of mine closure in the past 30 years was due to resource depletion and in 75% of the cases the mines were closed for the other reasons. Ghanbari et al (2010) demonstrated that 48.6 % of copper mine closure in the past 100 years was due to resource depletion and 51.4 % of copper mines have been closed due to other reasons. The main reasons of premature mine closure are as follow (Laurance, 2006; Ghanbari et al, 2010; Maiti, 2013): • Economic, (low commodity prices or high costs) • Geological, (over-estimation of grade and tonnage) • Geotechnical (adverse geotechnical conditions) • Technical (equipment failure) • Regulatory, due to safety or environmental breaches • Social or community pressures • Closure of downstream industry or markets • Flooding or inrush Minaei Mobtaker and Osanloo (2013) developed a mine closure prediction model based on the data collected from closed iron ore mines in the past 100 years. They showed that economic factors, exhaustion of ore reserve and geological conditions are the main reasons of iron ore mine closure. They treated mine closure as a decision making problem in order to predict the causes of mine closure, including the uncertainties of some mine plan parameter such as iron ore price, production and consumption."