Challenges in Managing an Aging Infrastructure, Lessons Learned from a Near Miss at the Lake Manatee Dam

"Two of the greatest challenges we face in managing our aging infrastructure are to perform accurate condition assessments and to realistically predict the risk of non-action. The aim of this paper is to discuss common pitfalls we face in performing accurate condition assessments of our aging infrastructure using the case history of a recent near miss at the Lake Manatee Dam in Central Florida. The dam was placed into service in 1967 and was inspected every couple of years by dam safety engineers beginning in 1978. Although there was substantial and repeated evidence of a serious piping and internal erosion problem in each of these inspections, the problem was overlooked by most of the inspection teams. In 2012, the inspection team concluded that: “the Lake Manatee Reservoir Dam is well maintained and is in very good overall condition.” However, in 2013 a new team inspected the dam from an entirely different perspective, identified potentially serious conditions, performed an integration of the historical inspection data and concluded that: 1) the Lake Manatee Dam was in a severely distressed state; and, 2) without an immediate intervention there was a high risk of an uncontrolled release of the reservoir most likely following a large rainfall event and prolonged opening of the service spillway. This case history highlights human factors contributing to the near miss including group think and focusing on changes from prior inspections. The integration of historical inspection data is recommended for managing our aging infrastructure.INTRODUCTIONThe engineering analytical techniques most appropriate for assessing an aging infrastructure can be distinct from those used for the original design. To adequately manage our aging infrastructure it is necessary to change our perspective from anticipating failure mechanisms and designing to prevent them to assessing condition, detecting the presence of potential failure mechanisms, and assessing the potential risks. In many circumstances the failure mechanisms currently active may not have been anticipated by the original design team.We have developed a substantial body of experience in the design of our infrastructure. Full scale and laboratory testing coupled with the application of scientific principles to model behavior has led to many powerful design tools. The continued serviceability of our infrastructure as its elements reach their design lives stands as a legacy to our profession. However, under the sustained effect of limited resources for maintenance and rehabilitation parts of our infrastructure are in a highly deteriorated state. Unfortunately, the condition of some of these has not been properly assessed. This paper focuses on the Lake Manatee Dam in Central Florida and the process used to clearly identify its highly deteriorated state. While there are many factors that contributed to the lack of a proper assessment of its condition, the focus herein will be on human factors and in particular how “Group Think”, “Aversion to Bad News”, and “Condition Assessments Based on Changes to Prior Condition” may have contributed to not properly identifying the development of a serious failure mechanism."