Carbon-Emission Calculation of Large Shield Tunneling—Based on Data-Mining Methodology

"Construction activities account for a large share of the global Greenhouse Gas emission. In the past 10 years, project decision-makers and researchers have been paying more attention to the carbon emission of tunnel projects. In this paper we study the carbon emission calculation in shield tunneling. The objective of this paper is to: (1) analyze the complex variables which affect the total emission of shield tunneling; (2) develop and illustrate a new data-mining-based method to estimate the carbon emission in the construction phase; (3) assess the emission prediction reliability of a data-mining-based method—the Randomforst model, with R programming language. This study is based on a large-diameter shield tunnel built in Shanghai, China, and shows that a reliable predictive performance can be achieved with this new data-mining-based method. INTRODUCTION Climate change caused by the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission has been a hot topic in recent 20 years. Both governments and non-government-organizations are trying its best to control the climate change. Since the 1990s, the general consensus is that carbon emission reduction and carbon sinking (the work of capturing the emitted carbon) are two ways of mitigating the global warming effect, with the former being more exercisable. The challenge posed by global warming also motivates the project decision-makers to take measures to reduce the GHG emission. The 5th Assessment & Report on Climate Change (published by IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) suggests that building industry contributes to 5% of the total direct emission. The building industry has shown more awareness of the impact of GHG emissions with construction activities. Shield tunnels act as an important component of the infrastructure system, and have been the dominant way of utilizing the underground space, as well as a competitive alternative to passageway underneath rivers. To study the environmental effects of shield tunneling, there is a need to quantify the carbon emission of shield tunnel construction."