Can We Stop Misrepresenting Reality to the Public?

Numerous voices are raising around the world to show how misleading and fuzzy commonly used risk assessments methods are. These criticisms come at a time when public trust in ?proponents of new projects?, operators, private or governmental, seems to have hit a low and the legal system ?targets? public officers. It is common that technical experts and the public strongly disagree in their analysis of risks. Risk definition requires the evaluation of probability and consequences and those words are oftentimes enough to stir great worry to the public. Thus it is nowadays commonly understood that ?reality? is not scientific, but resides in public opinion, hence urging technical people to communicate better, more transparently. Blatant failures on both counts have lead to the emergence of ?new myths? used to justify complacency using ?complexity? and other buzz words as an alibi. This paper (together with its companion presented elsewhere) explores how poor ?common practices? in Risk Assessment contribute to biasing project team, design teams opinions, skew decision-making process and finally misrepresent reality to the public resulting precisely in the raise of public distrust, legal implication witnessed around the world. The discussion first reviews the pitfalls of common approaches (FMEA, Probability Impact Graphs) pinpointing them as possible causes of future legal liabilities. An alarming disconnect also comes from various codes, ISO 31000 itself has this flaw, invoking the term ?acceptable?/?tolerable? without defining it or giving any guidance for its determination. Wide-spectrum public consultation could be developed to define a ?modern? social acceptability criteria helping all the stakeholders making/understanding decisions. Another alarming disconnect comes from the poor definition of consequences of mishaps and their societal ripple effects. This aspect is indeed mostly ignored in codes, leaving ample room to biases and censoring applied to potential losses. In our society no one seems to have anymore the possibility of hiding behind a shroud of ?carefully maintained? misrepresentation. It is time to act and ?write the book? for proper risk assessments avoiding misrepresentations.