Assessment of Projected Technological Innovation in the US Copper Industry

Over the past decade, numerous factors have led US copper firms to face increasingly severe competition from low cost foreign producers. As a result, greater attention is being devoted to developing and implementing new technology that can reduce costs and maintain the competitive position of domestic firms while simultaneously meeting environmental requirements. To obtain a better understanding of the likelihood of the development, adoption, and use of innovative copper technologies in the future, the Bureau of Mines contracted with Mineral Systems Inc. of Stamford, CT, to undertake a systematic survey of technological experts in industry, government, and the academic community. According to the survey, major developments in exploration over the next 25 years are likely to be in technologies that facilitate analysis and interpretation of deposit data rather than those that enable the collection of additional data. Most new copper mining and beneficiation technologies are likely to represent evolutionary extensions of existing systems with a notable increase expected in the application of information systems technologies and computer control methods. A possible movement towards increased usage of continuous mining systems in copper was also noted. Experts indicated that several copper smelters are under consideration for extensive renovation and, as a result, flash smelting technology is expected to become much more widely used in the US. A gradual movement toward continuous smelting methods was also forecast. In copper refining, the major technological change expected is the gradual automation of various refinery operations. Finally, though increased usage is expected, in situ solution mining and hydrometallurgical processing of sulfide ores are not expected to become widespread over the forecast time horizon. This first article in a two-part series describes the survey method chosen and the technological innovations selected for eval¬uation. Also discussed are the assessment panels, background scenarios, critical events, and diffusion forecasts. Next month, part two will address technology forecasts resulting from the study. Featured are discussions on future copper exploration, mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining, and recycling. A cost/benefit analysis will also be included. Methodology Selection of Assessment Method To develop a consensus forecast of technological change in the copper industry, a technique for systematically polling subjective opinions of experts was required. After conducting a literature survey and some preliminary testing, the direct probability assessment method was selected. With this assessment method experts are asked to express in quantitative terms their judgment of the probability that a specified event will occur, usually over a series of time frames. The method was chosen because the experts were observed to be more comfortable with this approach during the testing period, and the results of this process effectively satisfied the assessment objective. The experts generally could provide more precise estimates of the timing of future events using this technique because it was the least cumbersome of the assessment methods tested. Identification, Selection, and Description of the Technologies The initial list (Table 1) of innovative copper technologies assessed in the study was developed from two principal sources: knowledge and expertise of the study team and a review of relevant technical literature. From this list of 47 potential technologies, 10 were selected for detailed assessment. Table 2 lists 35 technologies that were subsequently identified in the first series of assessments. Twelve technologies from this list were also selected for detailed evaluation in a second assessment round. Criteria used for the final selection of technologies for detailed assessment specified that: • The expected impact of each technology on copper supply (i.e.,