Assessing Strategies For Natural Resource Companies

The ultimate test of a business strategy is whether it achieves the owner's objectives. Most shareholders are interested in growth and profits, and share values on stock exchanges are very often closely correlated with profit growth and profitability measured as return on equity (ROE). Strategic management, then, involves managing investments or resource allocations to optimize long-term growth and real return on equity, within reasonable limits of risk. Figure 1 shows a plot of the five year, weighted average ROE of a number of communications companies against their stock market valuations in 1983, measured as a ratio of market value to book value. The principal explanation of the differences in the relative valuations of the individual stocks is historical ROE, weighted toward the most recent years. Further analysis demonstrates the added importance of growth in explaining the differences in stock market to book ratios. [ ] Research conducted by Booz Allen and others in recent years suggests that the relationships between ROE and market to book multiples hold true in industry after industry. Furthermore, we have found that in assessing business strategies for companies in these industries, the analyses should focus on whether proposed strategies are likely to lead to consistent long-term growth in real ROE, without excessive leverage. Our research also reveals, however, that these approaches to strategy assessment are not consistently applicable in the natural resource extractive industries. Figure 2 shows a similar comparison of market to book values against five year average ROE for a group of nine mining companies in 1983. Market value of the shares shows little correlation with ROE. [ ] Analysis of the data for other extractive industries indicates a similar pattern; that is, low correlation between share values and