Are We Testing Enough in Feasibility Studies? - SME Annual Meeting 2025

This paper explores the impact of the significant difference between the number of geochemical assays conducted for grade estimation and the number of comminution tests performed for throughput and performance forecasting. Both grade and throughput are key factors in determining the project. We analysed 154 feasibility study reports to assess the impact of sample frequency for comminution test work on project revenue. This disparity in size between assay and comminution data arises because geological and resource-grade risks cannot be managed without extensive geochemical testing, whereas comminution risks are traditionally mitigated through design methods and the use of contingencies. This approach is partly due to the relatively high cost and large sample requirements associated with traditional comminution tests. Our analysis demonstrates that insufficient comminution sampling and testing leads to uncertainties in throughput forecasts, creating significant financial risks. Data from the feasibility studies show that a 1% change in mill throughput can result in up to a 5% variation in Net Present Value (NPV), underscoring the sensitivity of project economics to operational performance. Building on previous work, we reference studies that reveal how low frequency of comminution testing can increase uncertainty in mill throughput forecasts and increase financial risks. We propose an approach that optimises the number of comminution samples tested to enhance forecast accuracy and reduce NPV variance. By adopting this approach, mining projects can improve financial reliability and mitigate risks associated with underperformance in SAG and AG mill-based operations.