Application of Statistical-Analytical Methods in Ground Control Engineering

Rock mechanics models are “data-limited,” i.e., one seldom knows enough about a rock mass to use computational models unambiguously. Statistical methods, however, are capable of being applied where there are good data but a limited understanding of certain natural phenomena, such as the creep of rock salt or elevated risk domains associated with violent failure of strata commonly referred to as coal bumps and coal bursts. Important to these evaluations are (1) having statistically valid data collected consistently and (2) incorporation of analytical calculations for quantifying geologic, mining and particularly geotechnical variables. By combining the strength of the statistical and analytical models, an improved “hybrid” model is created and utilized. To demonstrate the use of hybrid statistical-analytical techniques in rock mechanics problems, three case studies are used. The first case study involves a historic examination of a nuclear waste repository in rock salt, where mathematical models are built using excavation con- vergence data to identify significant variables and estimate future deformation and stability. This case study uses the convergence rate at up to 121 locations of different ages and geometries using monitoring data over the facilities' footprint excavated through 1998. The second case study focuses on ongoing analysis of coal burst mechanics and associated factors. Within the last three decades, a hybrid statistical-analytical methodology has been applied for identifying significant factors affecting coal bursts. This final hybrid model utilizes data from 30 case studies from Utah, Colorado, Kentucky, and other Eastern U.S. mines providing predictive capability for the entire United States coal fields. The last case study is the assessment of Castlegate Sandstone escarpment stability using historic data collected over 17,000-ft of sandstone escarpment exposure in the vicinity of longwall operations in Utah. Results from all three case studies are used for demonstrating the utility of the method in solving ground control problems.