Application of Risk Analysis to a New Gold Mine

Detailed cash flow forecasts have always been almost essential as a basis for judging the viability of proposed new mining projects. In recent years attempts have been made explicitly to take account, in such forecasts, of the uncertainties surrounding the assumptions upon which they are based. With the risk analysis approach, Monte Carlo simulation of the cash flows indicates in probability terms the combined effect of these uncertain basic assumptions. While the use of risk analysis has been widely discussed, few specific applications to real projects have been reported. The application of such an analysis in the feasibility study of the large new Deelkraal gold mine presently being established on the Far West Witwatersrand gold fields by the Gold Fields Group in South Africa is described in the paper. The paper also indicates how one of the major sources of uncertainty, namely the gold content of the ore, can be`quantified in objective probability terms. This feature distinguishes the application fran other published accounts in which only subjective probability assessments have been utilised.