Analysis of significant mineral discoveries in the last 40 years and future trends

Exploration record In preparing this paper, a list of world class discoveries prepared in 1983 has been updated. In both surveys, the following criteria were used in the definition of world class discoveries: • deposits that are continuously operated and consistently return a profit even in periods of low metal prices; • deposits large enough to significantly affect a medium sized corporation's profits; and • these deposits should be in the lower one-third cost per unit of metal produced for all similar deposits. Only 70 discoveries in the last 40 years qualified as world class deposits using these criteria. Unfortunately, this restricted population was too low to develop meaningful trends. The numbers were therefore enlarged to include all significant discoveries. The principal feature of a significant discovery is that its size and grade would yield more than $500 million in revenue using average metal prices for the last five years. A significant deposit should also meet some of the standards for a world class deposit. A tabulation of these deposits are shown in Table 1. The number of discoveries increased to 166 from 70 using the revised classification. The relationship between the number of discoveries per year and their location by continents was prepared from these data. Figure 1 shows the number of discoveries per year for the nonCommunist world. It also shows estimated and actual nonCommunist world exploration expenditures per year and the commodity price index. These data show that modern exploration started in the late 1940s, with the tempo picking up rapidly in the 1950s. The maximum discovery rate occurred in 1962. Thereafter, the discovery rate gradually declined to the present. This occurred despite a real increase in expenditures from about $200 million/a in 1955 (1982 constant dollars) to more than $900 million/a in 1980. Thus, these data suggest a significant decrease in the exploration success ratio (total exploration expenditures a year divided by the number of significant discoveries) in the last 20 years. As an example, $70 million was spent for each significant discovery in the early 1960s as compared with $225 million in the late 1970s (expressed in 1982 constant dollars). However, with the general declining trend of discoveries, one can perceive a more pronounced drop in 1973 and then a sudden increase in 1974, 1975, and 1976. This increase is probably related to the inflation of the 1970s that in turn created an environment for the explosion of commodity prices, as shown by the commodity price index on Fig. 1. Thereafter, the decline in discoveries resumed in 1975 until the present. Exploration performance by regions North American discoveries are shown in Fig. 2. The graph shows three pronounced high discovery peaks in 1962, 1975, and 1980-81.