Analysis of ARMPS2010 Database with LaModel and an Updated Abutment Angle Equation

"The Analysis of Retreat Mining Pillar Stability (ARMPS) program was developed by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) to help the U.S. coal mining industry to design safe retreat room and pillar panels. ARMPS calculates the magnitude of the in-situ and mining-induced loads by using geometrical computations and empirical rules. In particular, the program uses the “abutment angle” concept in calculating the magnitude of the abutment load on pillars adjacent to a gob.In this paper, stress measurements from U.S. and Australian mines with different overburden geologies with varying hard rock percentages were back analyzed. The results of the analyses indicated that for depths less than 650 ft, the ARMPS empirical derivation of a 21° abutment angle was supported by the case histories; however, at depths greater than 650 ft, the abutment angle was found to be significantly less than 21°. In this paper, a new equation employing the panel width to overburden depth ratio is constructed for the calculation of accurate abutment angles for deeper mining cases.The new abutment angle equation was tested using both ARMPS2010 and LaModel for the entire case history database of ARMPS2010. The new abutment angle equation to estimate the magnitude of the mining-induced loads used together with the LaModel program was found to give good classification accuracies compared to ARMPS2010 for deep cover cases.INTRODUCTIONIn the early 1990s, the Analysis of Longwall Pillar Stability (ALPS) was introduced by Mark (1990) as a chain pillar design software and was generally accepted and used by the U.S. coal mining industry. Following the success of ALPS, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) developed the Analysis of Retreat Mining Pillar Stability (ARMPS) program for designing retreat mining pillars using a similar approach as ALPS (Mark and Chase, 1997). The Australian mining industry also recognized the success of ALPS, and Colwell, Frith, and Mark (1999) calibrated the program to Australian conditions. The ALPS and ARMPS programs draw their strengths from the large databases that are used to calibrate them (Mark, 2009). However, following the Crandall Canyon Mine collapse in 2007, NIOSH had to reconsider the pillar design criteria used in deep-cover retreat mining (Mark, 2010). The ARMPS overburden load prediction algorithm was improved to more accurately predict the loading of narrow panels with high overburden depths by implementing the pressure arch concept, and this new version is called ARMPS2010."