Ammonium Nitrate: Projections on Its Future Availability

The supply crunch and cost rise for ammonium nitrate (AN) over the past year have been influenced by a number of factors. These include a general inflationary tendency, particularly great cost rises in fuel, and by a market condition in which demand for ammonium nitrate is great and supply is limited. Demand is largely confined to agricultural and explosives uses with explosives subdivided into mining, construction, and quarrying. The projections show that demand may be expected to increase markedly for the indefinite future in the agricultural and mining sectors of the ammonium nitrate market while fluctuating with indicators of economic activity for the construction and the quarrying sectors. Supply is projected to increase with plants being designed and built due to high need levels and commensurately high profit potential but not enough are planned to provide an equilibrium market. Constraints upon supply increases to match demand increases include shortages in the raw material, natural gas, high cost of investment capital, high equipment costs and long construction delays. The result should be, even under optimistic conditions, considerable shortage and resultant pressure for higher prices through 1979 for ammonium nitrate. The best hope for relief in the intervening years appears to be conservation. In blasting operations, the earliest and best proven route to conservation seems to be improved utilization available from application of highest available technology and most efficient current blasting practice.