Acid Mine Drainage Prediction-­Science and Soothsaying

Any viable model or deterministic formula used to make predictions must follow certain criteria. The standard models and procedures used to project acid load from mining activities operate from a number of assumptions, some of which, although logical, are scientifically oversimplified and, hence, invalid. Highly variable field parameters have lead to highly variable acid projections. Kinetic tests are in themselves misnomers in that no parameters associated with chemical reaction kinetics are ever determined. Sampling error coupled with assumptions made as to the distribution mode of pyritic materials in rock units can lead to highly inaccurate conclusions explaining why acid generation often occurs where none is predicted. The fact that probability theory and paradigms governing luck and chance have not been incorporated into the science of acid prediction undermines any credence placed on such projections. To date, with few exceptions, the acid prediction is logically closer to a game of chance than practical science.