Accounting for Risk in Mining Investments*

"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February." -Mark Twain Although the preceding chapters describe the type of preliminary evaluation frequently performed in the mining industry, it has been assumed that input data are known with certainty-clearly an enormous simplification. In reality, estimates of ore grade, mining cost, metal price, etc., are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty due to the inability to predict the future with much precision. Management would probably not, for example, be equally attracted to two projects each offering a 20% DCFROI-one for a new gold venture in Nevada and the other for an undersea manganese nodule operation in the Pacific. The high risk with the latter investment tells the obvious; there is more to investment decision-making than a deterministic analysis using "best estimates" of input parameters. The science of decision theory normally distinguishes between decisions under uncertainty, where probabilities of various outcomes are unknown; and decisions under risk, where such probabilities can be estimated. The first case is rarely en- countered in practical capital investment analysis in mining, so the remainder of this chapter focuses on that class of problems where rational probability distributions for the future states of input variables can be estimated. RISK IN MINING Risk in the context of this chapter is the unforeseen deviation of individual cash flows from expected values for a capital project. For a mining venture, the source of this uncertainty could be any number of factors relating to such items as ore grade, ore reserve tonnage, operating costs, product prices, etc. With conventional *Adapted from O'Neil, T.J., 1979, "Procedures for the Preliminary Financial Evaluation of Metal Mining Ventures," Computer Methods for the 80s, A. Weiss, ed., AIME, New York, pp. 556-573.