A Triumvirate Approach For LDC Natural Resource Projects

INTRODUCTION A complex interaction of worldwide economic and political forces is increasingly requiring 3 primary participants for the successful development of large natural resource projects in developing countries. They are the host government of the developing country (the "host government"), one or a consortium of international natural resource companies, (the "Resource Company") and one, or more likely, a syndicate of international lenders. The host government typically controls the rights to its country's natural resources and establishes the economic ground rules for their development. However, because of worldwide inflation and the depletion of easily accessible, high-grade resources, the nominal and real capital development and operating costs of projects have been spiraling. Moreover, the depletion of high-grade and mineralogically uncomplicated resources also raises the technical and operating risks associated with resource recovery. Thus, despite increasing political self-consciousness and economic nationalism in developing countries, international resource companies are still often necessary project sponsors since they can provide, among other things, the required technical and management expertise and equity capital. The presence of these factors, and often the addition of worldwide market access in a project, is often critical in determining whether or not the project will be considered creditworthy by international commercial lenders. The international commercial lender is often the critical third party in project development, due in a large part to the ever escalating-costs of project developments relative to the financial resources of many companies and even a growing number of countries. In addition, lenders have other reasons for taking more than a passive interest in all aspects of a project's development. These reasons include the following: 1. Projects are often financially structured such that the primary security for a loan, once completion and performance standards are met, is the cashflow of the project rather than recourse to its sponsors. 2. Lenders, in addition to the "project risk" just described, are frequently asked to assume various elements of "political" risk which nay put them in a sensitive economic position between the host government and international resource firms (This is discussed later). 3. International banks today have large loan portfolios of developing country debt with final maturities ranging from one to fifteen years. The various current projects undertaken are the building blocks of most developing country economies that will hopefully contribute to the long run economic development of a country as well as generate the foreign exchange necessary to repay foreign loans in the future. In this regard it is useful for lenders to realize whether a given project "makes sense" in terms of a country's natural resource endowments and competitive advantages over other countries. The type of framework discussed in this article would help lenders to better make such assessments. In order to facilitate the continued international flow of capital and technology to developing countries and of readily available supplies of raw materials from them, it is important for each of these three parties to increase its awareness of the goals and objectives of the other parties as well as the bargaining process that results in the legal, financial, credit and fiscal structures by which a joint venture project ultimately proceeds. Each of the parties faces increasingly complicated accept/reject decisions when they are faced with difficult choices among. a wide range of alternative structural combinations each of which has different implications for risk and reward to them. Therefore, by increasing the mutual, 3-way awareness of the decision processes of the other parties, it should be possible to: • provide better information and results in the formation of more rational expectations by all parties going into negotiations, • facilitate the project formulation process by allowing parties to focus more clearly on the areas of common interest and conflict, • result more frequently in final structures and agreements that better reflect the economic and political realities associated with a project and thus • result in more creative, innovative agreements that should reduce the need for changes to them and thus promote the kind of long run political stability conducive to attracting capital and further investment.