A Three-Tier Method of Stability Evaluation for Coal Mines in the Witbank and Highveld Coalfields

"The probability of survival of coal pillars is a more rational indicator of stability than the safety factor. Over time, pillars undergo reduction in size by progressive scaling of the sidewalls. The probability of survival is therefore not constant but reduces over time. The rate of scaling can be quantified, and the reduction of the probability of survival as a function of time can therefore also be quantified. The paper describes the link between the factor of safety, probability of survival, and reduction of the probability of survival. Using the safety factor, probability of survival, and the time at which the probability of survival will reduce to 50% is proposed as a more rational method of evaluating pillar stability than the safety factor alone.IntroductionCoal pillar strength has long been the subject of research in South Africa and several other coal-producing countries. However, it began receiving serious attention only after the Coalbrook disaster in 1960. The most important outcomes of the initial investigations were the groundbreaking research by Salamon and Munro (1967) that resulted in the well-known power formula for pillar strength, and the work by Bieniawski (1969) that resulted in a linear formula for strength. The former approach was based on empirical back-analysis of failed and stable pillar cases, and the latter on in situ strength tests on large specimens.The Salamon and Munro (1967) formula has been widely used in South Africa and even adapted for application to hard rock pillars by researchers such as Hedley and Grant (1972).At the time of the initial work by Salamon and Munro, there were only 27 failed pillar cases suitable for analysis. It was not possible at the time to determine site- or seam-specific strength, and the result was a general formula for use in all seams in all mining districts. Since that time pillars have continued to fail and the database continued to grow – as of 2013, there were 85 cases in the database. Using the additional data, there have been a number of re-evaluations of the strength formula and it has also become possible to differentiate between the different mining seams and areas."