A systematic approach to political risk analysis for extractive industries

"Risks from political instability and government policies restricting equity ownership, local operations and transfers of payments affect the profitability of foreign mining ventures. More than seat-of-the-pants judgments and old-boy networks are required to anticipate these risks and to take actions appropriate to offsetting them. A system for making political forecasts, called the Prince System, and a series of charts relaying risk s to a production of key minerals will be presented.IntroductionFirm s with extractive operations outside their home country do not have to be told that political stability and government decisions play a big role in the success o f their operations. The takeover of copper firm s in Chile during the Allende administration in 1971 and the recent decision by Venezuela to reduce Reynolds Metals equity share in a smelting operation from 50% to 28% are two examples of hundreds of events that have determined the profitability of extractive operations over the past decade. Both risks and opportunities for international firms seeking to produce and market raw materials are heavily affected by political conditions. While news of political events travel much faster than in the past and host governments are more clever in shaping the risks as well as the opportunities, politics has always been part of the mining business.What has changed is the need to be more systematic in approaching the assessment of political conditions and how it affects business. The increasing costs of extractive operations, the need for long-range planning, the importance of financial arrangements and the world-wide scope of man y firm s' activities require that the assessment be updated continuously and be comparable across different countries and different types of investments. Political risk analysis, the assessment o f macro-political changes and specific governmental decision s on the operations of extractive industries needs to become as systematic and integrated into corporate decision -making as economic analysis has become over the past two decade s."