A system dynamics simulating model of groundwater level changes and its impacts on land uplift

Land uplift due to mine flooding has become a significant challenge with extensive historical mining activities, particularly in Germany’s Ruhr district. The cessation of coal mining operations has led to a gradual rise in groundwater levels, altering geotechnical and hydrological conditions and causing surface uplift. This study develops a system dynamics (SD) model to investigate the dynamic interactions of influential variables such as groundwater levels, total stress, porosity and permeability with land uplift over time. The model integrates causal loop diagrams (CLD) and stock flow diagrams (SFD) to comprehensively understand the system’s behavior. SFD illustrated that for a 10 percent increase in groundwater level, the land uplift increased by about +6 percent, and a rise of 200 percent in total stress caused an 18 percent increase in effective stress, which decreased the land uplift by about 20 percent. This study highlights the importance of dynamic modeling in informing land-use planning and mitigating the long-term impacts of land uplift after mine closures.