A System Dynamics Approach To An Analysis Of Factors Affecting Growth And Stability In International Mineral Industries ? Synopsis

The purpose of this paper is to describe work undertaken, within the System Dynamics Research Group at Bradford Management Centre, into the development and application of a System Dynamics model of an international mineral industry; aimed at providing a basis for analysis of the interrelationship of supply, consumption and price over time, under different production and stocking policies. A review is presented of some of the major characteristics and problems associated with such industries. This is followed by an outline description of the model and the way it has been applied to examine various supply responses, in the light of changing consumption patterns. Demonstration results deal with model validation and with analysis of international buffer stocks and conflicting supply policies on the historic situation in the copper industry.