A Shift Analysis Of Production, Employment And Income In The Mining Industries

Mining employment in the United States declined from 986,000 employees in 1948 to about 600,000 employees today. This has occurred even though the Index of Physical Volume of Mineral Production (1957-59=100) has increased from 88 to 111 and the value of mineral production measured in constant(1957-59) dollars has increased from $14.7 billion to approximately $19.3 billion. Average unit mine value has increased 24% as compared with a 34% increase in prices in general. Apparent consumption has increased more than domestic production, indicating an increased dependence on imports. The mineral economy presents a complex pattern of development factors in the post-war period. This article presents a technique by which the various forces that have been acting on the market for a mineral commodity may be sorted out and by which the extent of the impact of technological change in use as well as the technological change in production can be measured. If one is interested in delineating fully and completely the impact of technological change upon the mining industries, it is not sufficient to describe the increase in productivity reflected by the above employment and production figures. What is reflected there is only the effect of technological change in the production function of the commodities under concern. These effects are obviously very substantial and have major implications for labor, capital and supplying industries. However, they are not the only effects of technological change and, in fact, may be relatively minor when the impact which arises because of changing technology in the using or consuming industries is considered.