A Probabilistic Approach to Water Balance Analyses for Tailings Dams

The net balance of the inflow and outflow of water in a tailings storage facility has major economic implications in any large mining and milling operation. In a net precipitation environment it can control the ultimate size and storage capacity of a facility or dictate the need for an expensive treatment and discharge program. In a net evaporation environment it can control the extent of the water rights acquisitions required for makeup water and dictate the number and size of expensive wells and pumping and delivery systems. The elements considered in a water balance analysis include the anticipated production rate, the water content of the slurry used to deliver the tailings, inflow from precipitation and snowmelt, and losses from evaporation and seepage. The mine can exert significant control over only one of these elements: the production rate. All others are subject to considerable uncertainty from month to month and year to year. The traditional approach is to analyze in a spreadsheet environment by making simplifying assumptions and using monthly mean or "average" values for precipitation inflows and evaporation losses. Often the analysis will be repeated with values subjectively assigned to represent a "wet" year or "dry'' year. The probabilistic approach uses the same basic spreadsheet model in conjunction with a probabilistic simulation add-in program allowing probability distributions to be substituted for any of the deterministic variables. The resulting analysis shows the full range of variation possible for each parameter of interest (i.e., available return water, makeup water required, storage, seepage losses) and estimates the exceedance probabilities for each. The potential uses and advantages of the probabilistic approach are discussed.