A new tool in financial decision-making under uncertainty

"This new tool can be used as a quick guide f or the assessment of the potential economic wealth of any risky capital project. It does provide an unambiguous recommendation of the type ""go or no go"" to the decision-maker simply by comparing two different ratios profit/investment. One ratio determines the minimum value required to at least break even while the other measures a probable value based on the asymptotic theory of statistical extremes.Its application is briefly illustrated by means of an underground gold mine extension project, an oil sands mine project and a polymetallic open pit project.Once a favourable recommendation has been obtained then a detailed ""cash flow after taxes"" analysis can be carried out for the project.IntroductionMany tools are used in financial decision-making such as the payback period, the discounted cash flow, the internal rate of return and the wealth growth rate (Berry , 1971).These tools are useful and meaningful in evaluating normal projects closely related to regular business where the number of assumptions made is usually very small and where the cost of capita! is usually selected as a discount rate or a hurdle value. In situations where a significant number of assumptions have to be made,two problems can emerge, namely:I. the risk involved is underestimated leading to a potential financial disaster; or2. a good opportunity is lost because the approach used in evaluating the project is too conservative.Each assumption has its own degree of uncertainty and it is well known that combining uncertainties together can lead to a total uncertainty of critical proportion. The easiest way to account for risk is to increase the discount rate or the hurdle value, but this approach alone is quite subjective and can easily lead to the problems described above."