A Multi-year Assessment of Landform Evolution Model Predictions for a Trial Rehabilitated Landform

An important part of planning for the rehabilitation of uranium mine sites is the ability to assess the geomorphic stability of the final landform, over time frames ranging from decades to millenia. Depending on the environmental conditions, erosion features such as gullies may incise into containment structures, potentially leading to the exposure and transport of encapsulated radioactive material. Further, erosion may lead to increased sediment loads and the transport of other mine-related contaminants off-site and into downstream waterways. While erosion may be monitored and assessed over the short term (years to decades), the longer-term behaviour (centuries to millennia) of such landscapes is not within any meaningful human management time frame. Landscape evolution models (LEMs) can provide information on soil erosion rates at decadal or centennial scales over large spatial scales, and evaluate the sensitivity of these processes to environmental changes. However, an important issue associated with the use of models is the ability to assess the reliability and accuracy of the model. In this paper, the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM is tested for its ability to predict soil erosion from a series of 30 m × 30 m experimental plots specifically constructed for this purpose on a trial rehabilitated landform at the Ranger Uranium Mine in the Northern Territory, Australia. Model predictions of bedload and suspended sediment loads from the erosion plots were compared with field measured observations collected over four wet seasons from the trial landform. Once calibrated for the specific site hydrological conditions, the predicted sediment yield – specifically, bedload – demonstrated an excellent correspondence with the field data. However, longer-term simulations of ten years identified an exhaustion effect in sediment yield from the landform. These latter results indicate that a weathering function needs to be incorporated into CAESAR-Lisflood to ensure confidence that the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM will be able to correctly predict the long-term evolution of a rehabilitated landform once it has been?constructed.CITATION:Lowry, J,?Saynor, M,?Erskine, W, Coulthard, T and Hancock, G, 2014. A multi-year assessment of landform evolution model predictions for a trial rehabilitated landform, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2014 , pp 67–80 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).