A Model to Predict the Performance of EPB-TBMs in a Complex Geology in Istanbul

"It is expected that more than 10 Billion USD will be spent in Istanbul in coming years on tunnel boring especially with EPB-TBMs. However, the geology of Istanbul is very complex. Geologic formations changing from Paleozoic to Cenozoic ages cause tremendous problems due to frequently changed rock formations and andesite and diabase dykes. This paper summarizes a universal model to predict the performance of EPB-TBMs which is created upon the data base collected from several projects. The model first is based on predicting field specific energy and power consumed of TBMs using geo-mechanical properties of the excavated material and TBM diameter. Later net production rate is calculated using field specific energy and power consumed by TBM. A methodology to predict machine utilization factor permits to calculate daily advance rates. The validity of the model is tested using the data obtained from two recent metro tunnel projects. 1. INTRODUCTION It is expected that in a near future a total length of 400 km will be excavated in Istanbul in a complex geology. Selecting proper tunneling equipment, organizing an effective operational management with the right tunneling crew will be a major concern for an efficient scheduling of the future projects necessitating to create a model to estimate daily advance rates. Several TBM performance prediction models with few on the prediction of machine utilization time were realized in the past. However, there is quite limited number of research studies on predicting the performance of EPB TBMs. Specially predicting daily advance rates in complex geology, in mixed face, in fractured rocks, in transition zones etc. are in big concern (Namli et al. 2013, 2014). The first experiences in Istanbul with a gripper type TBM was a nightmare, roof collapses caused big delays in tunnel excavation (Bilgin 1993). A typical example to EPB-TBM was Kadikoy-Kozyatagi tunnel, changing TBM from opened mode to closed mode with few modifications on the cutterhead resulted a tremendous increase in the daily advance rates (Bilgin et al. 2009). The data collected from several tunnelling projects served a basis to create a model to predict daily advance rates of EPB TBMs. Within the frame of a research program the validity of the model was tested in Uskudar-Umraniye–Cekmekoy-Sancaktepe metro project and very recently in Mecidiyekoy-Mahmutbey project."