A Generic Approach to the Development of Semi-Empirical Predictive Models for Bath-Type Furnaces

The modelling of bath type furnaces tends to be either fundamental in nature or total empirical "black box models". While models of the first kind are robust, they tend to lack accuracy, in cases where they are to be used for process control, and may take an overly long in development time. On the other hand, black box models tend to lack robustness of prediction for all circumstances and tend to be limited to interpolate based on historical data. While this may very often provide short-term accuracy, the models may have problems with stability in the long term. Moreover, the model structure may not reflect any of the fundamental properties of the system and remains opaque to fundamental analysis. The aim of the model development is in obtaining a model that have robustness, high accuracy, a short development time and which is adaptive to a changing environment. The models are specifically developed for on-line decision support or control of furnaces. The modelling approach is evaluated for a chromite bath smelting furnace. The role of systems analysis, mass balance smoothing, thermodynamic analysis are integrated into one generic algorithm for bath type furnaces. Therefore, this paper argues that to understand complex metallurgical furnaces a hybrid approach is the only method to fully grasp the intricacies of metallurgy, to improve operations, economics as well as environmental performance.