A Forward Look into the U.S. Rare Earths Industry; How Potential Mines Can Connect to the Global Ree Market

"Mining used to be a business primarily focused on the technical aspects of getting valuable ore out of the ground and extracting the minerals efficiently. Without denying the importance of these skills, a narrow focus on technical issues is no longer enough to guarantee success when it comes to exploiting rare earth element (REE) deposits. Molycorp failed to enter the global REE market in a successful manner, while none of the many REE exploration projects has turned into an active mine so far and none is expected to commence operations in the near future. Accordingly, the world of REE is far more complex compared to other commodities. This paper looks into the REE industry to identify the factors that can connect potential U.S. REE mines to the market. The ability to break free from past thinking and become future-focused is a key driver. Mining of REE is pointless without a corresponding value-adding chain, while developing a value chain without first establishing an uninterruptible source of REE is also senseless. The mining sector must be based on the REE value chain and vice versa, along with the establishment of a market channel for the REE products that come out of the mine. INTRODUCTION It has been seven years since rare earth elements became the subjects of front-page headlines. It was when the controversial Chinese export policy for these critical commodities was epitomised in a maritime border dispute with Japan in September 2010 that resulted in the big REE crisis and price spike of 2011 (Barakos et al, 2016c; Mancheri, 2015). The world was dismayed, especially in REE-importing countries, such as the United States that was and is still totally dependent on Chinese production and exports (Barakos et al, 2016c; Kennedy, 2015). The short-lived alarm initiated a treasure hunt by way of exploration for REE deposits all over the world. The continuously growing demand on the one hand and the Chinese sovereignty of the REE-market on the other, led the rest of the world to explore their own REE resources. In just a few years, more than 400 projects were initiated to explore REE deposits outside of China (ERECON, 2015; Goodenough, 2016). The prices of REE, however, dropped rapidly and at the moment of writing this paper are in 6-year lows, at the level of the price average before the 2011 crisis (Barakos, 2017). The viability of even major established producers is being challenged, not to mention the development prospects of potential REE-market entrants (Barakos et al, 2016b; Rollat et al, 2016). Production cutbacks and industry consolidation in China impel REE market experts to forecast that prices have already reached their lowest point and have nowhere to go but up (Adamas, 2015; Roskill 2015). Yet, expectations for increased REE prices are limited and drastic changes are unlikely to happen in the near future, as there is still excess supply in the overall REE market (Barakos, 2017). Nevertheless, the low prices of rare earths are not the only reason that potential producers are struggling to enter the global REE market. Among other parameters, the separation of the individual elements seems to be the most important factor, as it is technically challenging and expensive to build and to operate."