A Forecast of the Coal and Uranium Requirements For Electric Power Generation in South Africa

This paper briefly describes a computerised model of the South African electricity system which has been developed jointly by the Atomic Energy Board and the Electricity Supply Commission. The results of an analysis of this system have been subjected to a fairly extensive sensitivity analysis which reveals that up to the year 1990 between 680 and 700 million tons of coal will be required for electric power generation, together with between 7 000 and 10 000 tons of uranium. This result is fairly insensitive to data variations, but the prediction of a cumulative requirement up to the year 2000, of between 1 300 and 1 800 million tons of coal and 25 000 to 70 000 tons of uranium, proves to be very data-sensitive.