A Dynamic Forecasting Model Of The United States Coal Market

This paper presents an application of computer simulation methods to the modeling and forecasting of the United States coal market. The computer methods employed as well as the model constructed are based on economic and econometric theory. The contents of the paper include a description of the coal market, the corresponding computer model, tests of model validation, computer generated scenarios for the period 1980-1985, and comparisons of the scenarios generated with that of other major coal forecasts.