A Discounted Cash Flow Model For Evaluating The Cost Of Producing Iron Ore Pellets From Magnetic Taconite

Discounted cash flow analysis is commonly used to evaluate the profit making potential of a business venture. The same method can be used to analyze the effects of varying physical and economic conditions upon the real cost of supplying a mineral commodity. If a fixed rate of return on a capital investment is specified, and the flow of cash, discounted at that rate, is just adequate to repay the investment over the life of the venture, the net present value of the venture is zero. At this condition it is possible to evaluate the unit cost of producing the mineral. It will be exactly equal to the selling price required to calculate a zero present value. Increasing a particular cost factor will not always increase the cost of supply by the same amount. For example, in iron production from magnetic taconite, an increased cost per ton associated with beneficiation would be integrated into the discounted cash flow model along with local, State, and Federal taxes, depletion and depreciation allowances, resultant increased unit recoveries, and all of the other related component cost factors. Rather than adding to the cost, the factor may have a positive, instead of a negative, effect on the discounted cash flow and cause a decreased cost of supply. This value can be determined by a computer model which iterates the necessary selling price until the net present value is essentially zero. The discounted cash flow evaluation model lends itself particularly well to an application of the Monte Carlo simulation method for calculating a probability distribution of iron unit cost resulting from the probability distributions of the component cost factors.