A Computer Simulation Model For The Assessment Of Mineral Resources

The problem of expressing a nation's mineral resources in terms that convey a sense of economic reality poses a great challenge to those charged with keeping government policymakers informed. A model is presented that can be used to simulate and examine the effects of, for instance, differences in levels of output, transportation costs, mining costs or selling prices on the exploitability and expected order of development of new mineral deposits. The model in its present form can be used to screen, as a first cut, the economic from uneconomic deposits in cases where little or nothing is known about them in detail. To date, this has generally been done - reluctantly - by subjective judgments. This model provides an improvement on the "informed opinion" approach, as it forces those who use the model to be both systematic and explicit in their assumptions. Moreover, the procedure is repeat- able and each step can be defended and justified. Implications can be examined of the uncertainty associated with many of the variables. The model is entirely too general to be of use for actual feasibility studies. It is not useful, in the case of speculative or little-known deposits, to provide a model that has an input format more detailed than the information that is likely to be available. Should the user see a need for it, the model can easily be expanded to allow for the input of more detail or more variables.