A Case Study on the Impact of Hedging Against Foreign Exchange Risk and Energy Price Risk

In a companion paper on current hedging practices in the mining industry (Armstrong et al, 2009) we showed that contrary to popular belief, mining groups are still using financial derivatives to hedge against foreign exchange risk and interest rate risk, and more recently against adverse changes in energy prices, notably the oil price. This paper presents a case study on a hypothetical gold mine to illustrate the impact that hedging policies could have on its profitability by reducing the downside risk due to adverse changes in the exchange rate and increases in fuel prices. The characteristics of the hypothetical mine have been set to reproduce those of a real gold deposit, the Kisladag mine that is currently being exploited by open pit methods in Turkey. This mine was selected because its feasibility study was available to the public. Geostatistical simulations are used to reproduce the inherent uncertainty on the recoverable reserves û stochastic simulations are used to generate the variability of the other three key sources of uncertainty: the gold price, the cost of energy and the exchange rate. A simple strategy based on straightforward vanilla options (puts and calls) was developed for hedging the last two risks, on the assumption that the company sells its production at the prevailing spot price.