30 Years of Advances in Risk Management for Underground Projects - RETC2023

Since the early days of risk management, developments in technology and guidelines (ITA, ITIG, OGG, UCA) have advanced risk management and probable cost estimating, which are now widely recognized. WSDOT’s CEVP risk-based cost validation process is now established after 20 years. This paper traces these developments, summarizes advanced techniques, and presents examples of US and international projects with results. A particular case of using advanced risk evaluation to allow enhanced-capability TBMs to be considered in a competitive bid process is presented. Further advances, including the use of digital twin risk-based representation of complex projects, are described.