1971 Jackling Lecture – The Gold Miner and the Future of Gold

The title of my talk is "The Gold Miner and the Future of Gold." This title might just as accurately have been stated as "Gold and the Future of the Gold Miner." Since prehistoric times gold has been sought by mankind for its beauty and its unusual physical and chemical properties. Early in the dawn of civilization it became the ultimate unit of value and lubricated trade between peoples. For at least 6000 years, gold has been used to barter for other commodities. It has been prospected for, treasured, made into works of art and personal adornment, and from time to time has been the object of conquest. Because of its predominant role in recent centuries as a basis for money, economists began to think of it solely in these terms. Annoyed by the disciplinary pressure of gold on the money manager's desire to manipulate money, the famous economist, John Maynard Keynes, characterized it as a "barbaric relic of the past", a characterization repeated by William McChesney Martin, Jr., when he was head of the Federal Reserve Bank. Gold, however, has physical and chemical properties that make it one of the most useful metals in the modern world.' It is the most ductile metal known. An ounce of gold, for example, can be drawn into a continuous wire over 35 miles long. It also is so malleable that an ounce of gold can be beaten into films ten one-millionths of an inch thick sufficient to cover 68 sq ft of surface. It has a density of 19.3 and is so heavy that 1 cu ft of gold weighs more than half a ton. Gold is nonmagnetic and has a high electric conductivity, only slightly less than silver and copper. Gold is so inert to all the chemicals found in nature that gold coins and jewelry buried beneath the soil or at the bottom of the sea for thousands of years appear to be as bright and perfect as when they were first immersed. Finally, gold has an extremely high reflectivity both to light and infrared rays. Because of these qualities, in addition to its rare beauty, industrial and artistic uses of gold have been growing rapidly. On a world basis, a recent study estimated that in 1960 about 750 tons of gold were used for fabrication, and that the amount had grown to about 1296 tons in 1968. My objective in this talk is to discuss with you the present and future supply of and demand for gold on a worldwide basis and the effect these forces are likely to have on the price the miner can expect to receive for the gold he produces. This is a highly controversial and risky subject to discuss before any audience. Nevertheless, it is a subject that I live with constantly as Chairman of the