(Mis)use of Monte Carlo simulations in NPV analysis

There has been some confusion over the selection of discount rates when performing stochastic simulations of a project's net present value (NPV) using risk- adjusted discounting techniques. Some argue that lower discount rates should be used when performing stochastic valuation simulations. This creates higher NPV values and improves the attractiveness of a project. Others argue that the discount rate should not be lowered for these simulations. This paper exposes the source of this confusion. It demonstrates that stochastic simulations do not remove the risk inherent in a project and, therefore-do not improve a project's value to the risk-averse investor. Risk-adjusted discount rates should, therefore, not be adjusted downward when performing stochastic NPV simulations. Stochastic simulations are, however, shown to he useful in several aspects of project valuation.