Copper in the 1980s

I recently gave a talk at a seminar on mine development in the Eighties. I had to present CRU' s long-range market outlook for copper, lead, zinc, nickel, molybdenum and silver. In reviewing the recent history of each metal, and our projections, I tried to find some common pattern of behavior that could prove a guide in projecting future market behavior. When you sweep aside your input-output models and econometric equations, what you seem to be left with is this: "When a market goes through a prolonged period of price weakness, you can usually look forward to a period of considerable improvement. " "When a market goes through a prolonged period of price strength, you can always anticipate a prolonged period of price weakness." Stated another way, "The better things are, the worse they will get."