# Methods of Predicting Final and Dynamic Subsidence Basins

Organization: Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration
Pages: 42
Publication Date: Jan 1, 1992
 4.1 INTRODUCTION There have been numerous methods developed for predicting the final subsidence and final displacement profiles (Voight and Pariseau, 1970; Brauner, 1973a; Kratzsch, 1983). But for discus- sion purposes, they can be classified into six categories: theoretical, profile function, influence function, graphical, physical, and numerical modeling. The theoretical method employs mainly continuum mechanics theories and attempts to explain the mechanisms that lead to sur- face subsidence. Many models using nearly all kinds of material behavior have been developed. These include elastic (Salmon, 1963; Berry, 1964), plastic (Pariseau, 1968), viscoelastic (Iman, 1965), and elastoplastic (Dahl, 1969). The Profile Function Method is essentially a method of curve-fitting against the measured subsidence profiles in a particular mine or region. There are more than 20 profile functions developed empirically for nearly all major coalfields in the world. These include, to name just a few representative ones: Hungary (Martos, 1958), Japan (Hiramatsu and Oka, 1968), Russia (Avershin, 1947), United Kingdom (Wardell, 1965), and USA (Peng and Chen, 1981; Karmis et al., 1984). The NCB's graphical method in the subsidence Engineers' Handbook (1975) also belongs to the profile function method. The influence function method was first proposed by Bals (1931/1932). It was further developed in various periods and stages by Knothe (1957), Liu and Liao (1965), Brauner (1973a) and Marr (1975). This method is now widely used in various parts of the world. The physical models include sand (Litwiniszyn, 1959; Pariseau and Dahl, 1968) and gelatin (King and Whetton, 1958; Khair et al., 1986). They are used mainly to study the parameters that control subsidence behavior. The most popular numerical method is the finite element technique. It can simulate nearly every conceivable material behavior, inhomogeneity, bedding planes, anisotropy, and various boundary conditions. This versatility is absolutely necessary considering the ever-changing geologic and mining conditions encountered. In the following sections, only those methods that have been applied to US coalfields will be discussed. Furthermore, the methods for prediction of several key parameters such as maximum subsidence, maximum possible subsidence, and maximum displacement are discussed first, because they are the key parameters to be used in the profile function, influence function, and graphical methods.