Mechanistic Subsidence Prediction Model (MSPM)

Khair, A. Wahab
Organization: Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration
Pages: 10
Publication Date: Jan 1, 1986
There are a number of factors, including mine geometry, local geology, geotechnical properties of overburden materials, surface topography, sequence of overburden strata, and extraction rate, affecting characteristics of surface subsidence imposed by large underground excavation. Among the factors, the first three have the major impact on magnitude and area of influence of final subsidence. Hence, a model has been developed, considering mine geometry and geologic and geotechnical properties of the associated area, to predict maximum possible subsidence and subsidence profile at any cross-section within the subsidence influence zone. Based on extensive field measurements and mechanics of strata behavior, under the action of overburden pressure in the vicinity of the large underground excavation, the vertical plane of influence zone has been divided into five areas: 1) excavated, 2) caved, 3) fractured, 4) highly deformed but continuous, and 5) subsided zones. In the final state of subsidence each area maintains a certain volume expansion/contraction, i.e. a factor which depends on geologic, geotechnical properties of overburden strata and state of stress within the subsidence trough. The cumulative volume expansion and contraction partially compensates for the extracted volume and the difference between the two is reflected as the subsided area in the form of the area within a curve defined by a probability function. The input parameters for the model are mine geometry (i.e. length and width of the panel), depth of cover, and geologic and geotechnical properties of overburden strata (i.e. percentage of hardrock, sandstone and limestone, and soft rock, shale within the overburden strata and Rock Quality Designation). The model calculates angle of draw for the site, expansion factor for each zone utilizing empirical relationships, maximum possible subsidence and plots the subsidence profile curve. The model is developed for a longwall excavation with unique characteristics of prediction of angle of draw and maximum possible subsidence for a given geologic and mining condition at any cross-section within the influence zone of subsidence.
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