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Mathematical modelling of mine subsidence measured at 21 locations in Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia allows for the refinement of current methods of predicting maximum land subsidence associated with longwall coal mining. This new method (RYBAD model) is an extension of that provided by Tandanand and Powell (1984; TP Model). The RYBAD model accomplishes more accurate subsidence predictions (error typically less than 10 percent) for a greater range of mining and geological parameters through the recognition of the following: 1) subsidence increases at a decreasing rate (curvilinear relationship) with greater overburden thickness up to a critical value beyond which subsidence decreases; 2) subsidence is strongly influenced by the stratigraphic proximity of strong rocks to the coal (size of potential caving zone); and 3) subsidence index is related to overburden thickness by a family of curves, each for incremental variations in the effective percentage of strong rock in the overburden. |