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|There are many uncertainties that a mine designer should consider when selecting an optimal layout. Even though the inherent variability in the design parameters indicates that single-values are not representative of mining conditions, risk estimators such as ERR are often used without considering their statistical distributions. A probabilistic methodology has been developed to assess the influence of the extraction sequence and layout geometry on the rockburst risk associated with four ultra-deep mining layouts. The statistical distributions of incremental energy release rates and excess shear stresses at face elements are used as indirect estimators of rockburst risk in stopes, and the statistical distribution of the rock condition factor (RCF) is used as an indirect estimator of rockburst risk in tunnels and service excavations.|